Probability, Statistics and Queueing

You arrive at a bus stop served every 10 minutes at a random time, without checking the timetable. The waiting time follows a uniform distribution from 0 to 10 minutes. Which of the following correctly combines the expected waiting time and the probability that the wait is 3 minutes or less?

  1. AExpected value 5 minutes, probability 0.7
  2. BExpected value 10 minutes, probability 0.3
  3. CExpected value 5 minutes, probability 0.3
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Answer: C. Expected value 5 minutes, probability 0.3

In a uniform distribution every value in the interval is equally likely, so the expected value is the midpoint of the interval, (0 + 10) ÷ 2 = 5 minutes. The probability that the wait is 3 minutes or less is the fraction of the interval length, 3 ÷ 10 = 0.3.

  • A. 0.7 is the probability that the wait is longer than 3 minutes.
  • B. 10 minutes is the bus interval; the expected waiting time is half of it, 5 minutes.
  • C. Correct. The expected value is 5 minutes, and the probability of waiting 3 minutes or less is 3 ÷ 10 = 0.3.
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